Economic market update

Equity markets and bond markets both rallied in November, under the influence of declining inflation in major economies and the anticipation of rate cuts in early 2024. There were significant gains in major indices. The MSCI Developed and Emerging Markets recorded returns of 8.0% and 3.1% respectively.

United States

The S&P 500 rose by 9.1%. Most sectors rose with double digit gains, but the Energy sector declined by 0.8%. The US economy continued to demonstrate resilience through November, with GDP expanding at an annualised rate of over 5% through the September quarter.

Europe

Equity markets registered strong gains. A 4.9% return was registered for the MSCI Europe Index (Unhedged) for November. There were signs of economic weakness in the manufacturing sector and rising unemployment, but there were also signs of improvement in consumer confidence and a stabilisation in growth.

China and Emerging Markets

Emerging Market equity returns benefitted from positive investor sentiment. Argentina was the standout performer, returning 42.4% according to the MSCI Argentina Index. This followed the election of new Prime Minister, Javier Milei.

The Chinese economy showed signs of strain, with key business activity indicators recording contractions for the second month in a row in November, largely due to a decease in travel and consumer spending.

Australia

Gains were seen on the Australian market. The ASX 300 was up 5.1% in November. Small Caps outperformed this with a return of 7.0%. Most sectors were stronger, led by Healthcare and IT, while Energy and Utilities saw declines. Ongoing inflationary pressures, especially in the services sector, have led some to believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to continue its tighter policy stance through 2024.

Currency and Bonds

Government bond yields fell sharply, after reaching new decade-highs during October. Specifically the yield on the US 10 year bond declined by 54 basis points, closing at 4.36%. The Australian 10 year bond yield experienced a drop of 51 basis points, closing at 4.41%.

The Australian dollar recorded a 4.7% rise against the US dollar, after a period of underperformance. The currency also strengthened against those of other major economies, such as the Euro (+1.5%) and the Japanese Yen (+2.2%).

Read the Market Commentary for October 2023.